“All Roads Lead to Mobile”

Ambient-InsightFor years, we at Ambient Insight have been saying “All roads lead to Mobile.” And for the fifth year in a row, Ambient Insight’s Chief Research Officer Sam Adkins, the author of our Mobile Learning market reports, has revised his worldwide Mobile Learning forecasts upwards—significantly upwards.

The money is there–$5.3 billion in 2012, doubling to $12.2 billion by 2017. The numbers in the 2012-2017 Worldwide Mobile Learning Market report we just released (a compilation of 7 regional reports) reflect the galloping speed with which buyers around the world are embracing Mobile Learning.  What’s interesting also is which countries in terms of revenue, took the top five slots in 2012 and which will be in the top five positions by 2017.

MobileLearning_horseRaceIn 2012, the top five buying countries were US, Japan, South Korea, China, and India. The revenue picture changes by 2017: China leaps ahead from 4th place to the top spot, the US drops back to 2nd, India moves up from 5th to 4th, and Indonesia and Brazil join the top five in 3rd and 5th place respectively.

It’s not really a horse race, of course, but it is a very dynamic and robust market.

MobileLearning_Top20Worldwide5YrGrowth_countryThe growth rates are impressive, too, as are the patterns that Sam reports. The worldwide five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 18.2% Of the 93 countries (analyzed in this report) from the seven worldwide regions, 22 countries have growth rates in excess of 40%.

Further, of the top 20 countries with the highest growth rates, 6 are in Asia, 6 in the Middle East, and 5 in Africa.

The pattern is clear, as Sam puts it, “Mobile Learning is now being embraced as an essential strategy to improve education in these dynamic economies.” We saw confirmation of this first hand in November at the Connected Living Summit in Dubai, which included a focus on mEducation for Skills Development and Employability in the MENA region.

What’s Driving This Mobile Learning Market?

Catalysts vary from region to region, and country to country–and each regional report delves into those–but five catalysts are continually: strong consumer demand, new direct carrier billing agreements, large-scale tablet adoption, personal learning devices, and the explosion of Mobile Learning value added services (VAS).MobileLearning_WorldwideCatalysts

The free Executive Summary of the 2012-2017 Worldwide Market for Mobile Learning  premium report goes into detail on these catalysts, and you can download that document and the seven regional Abstracts from Ambient Insight’s Market Research page on our website.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Dubai – mEducation in the Desert

GSMAThe GSMA Connected Living Middle East Summit in Dubai in November 2013 brought together mobile network operators, device manufacturers, and NGOs active in mEducation (Mobile Learning) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Slides we presented highlighted key findings from Ambient Insight’s Mobile Learning research and forecasts for 2012-2017 in a closed session for GSMA members. (We compiled data from two regional reports—Middle East and Africa—to deliver the MENA outlook.)

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The Wednesday session on mEducation for Skills Development and Employability focused on “equipping young people throughout the Middle East and North Africa with the skills to enter the workforce through the use of mobile technology.” Presenters included Joe Yousr Battikh, Head of Corporate Responsibility, Ericcson; Lauren Dawes, Head of Mobile for Employment and mEducation Regional Lead, GSMA, Africa; George Held, Vice President of Commerce, Etisalat Group; Yomna El Meshad, Head of Mobile Learning, British Council; Mr Chams Ouerdiane, Proinvest/Tunisiana partner; and Yazeed Sheqem, Director of Business Development, Souktel.

Tyson and Hannah Dubai 2013-cc

Ambient Insight’s Tyson Greer and GSMA’s Hannah Metcalfe

The topic was well chosen, given high rates of unemployment and mobile penetration in the MENA region. GSMA’s Lauren Dawes reported that the MENA region is plagued by 32% unemployment (73 million), which is nearly three times the 12% rate of worldwide unemployment.

Mobile penetration in the region is the highest on the planet. Kuwait and Oman are the only countries in the world with mobile subscription rates over 200%.  Lauren Dawes also noted that “71% would spend their last $10 to top up their mobiles, rather than on food.” 

Given the high mobile penetration rate, it’s not surprising that mEducation has outpaced eLearning. The compound annual growth rate (2012-2017) for Mobile Learning in 15 MENA countries is 18% and for six of those countries, it is over 50%. High growth rates typically mean market opportunity.

Telecoms in the MENA region have responded to opportunities to deliver mEducation value added services (VAS). At the end of 2011, there were three Mobile Learning VAS in three countries; by the end of September 2013, there were 14 in six countries.

In spite of the impressive growth of Mobile Learning VAS, there are challenges–for the sustainability of the product type and for mobile network operators.

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects risk failure because, to take an example from the real world, if a company goes in and builds a well and it breaks a year or two later, there’s likely no one to go back in and fix it. Likewise, without a revenue model, a VAS project can be difficult to sustain.

Morning Dubai 2013-11-16 004The Connected Living Summit was held in the extraordinary city of Dubai, a stunning study in contrasts. In a very few decades the city catapulted itself from a fishing village into a dazzling example of technology with the waters of the Persian Gulf on one side and the Arabian desert on the other.

 

Tyson with Harris Hawk

Ambient Insight CEO Tyson Greer flying a Harris Hawk.

The city can boast the tallest (if you discount another’s claim as an antenna, rather than architectural feature) building on the planet, water systems, and the efficient user-friendly in-city trains.

The desert gave us an opportunity for a remarkable first-hand experience at flying raptors at the Dubai Desert Conservation Reserve.

 

 

 

 

Privacy Update in a Data-Driven World

How do you collect, use, share, and/or retain personal information? Most app stores require a privacy policy from developers. But as developers and platform providers find new ways to make use of user data for product features, adaptive instruction, or new services; the questions surrounding a user’s privacy becomes more acute.

Privacy_feel like you're being watchedThere have been “advances” in the US this past year that may figure in a learning technology supplier’s privacy protection plans.(Reminder: This is a blog, not a legal brief.) Two worth mentioning in particular were issued to protect consumers of mobile apps and children using online products.

 

California’s Guidelines “On the Go”

To borrow from Johnny Depp in the “Pirates of the Caribbean,” the AG’s guidelines are just that – guidelines – not legal rules or even government-inspired, enforceable online privacy “codes of conduct” such as those the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTLA) was working on. Basically, the California guidelines reinforce the FTC’s “privacy by design” approach and the Organization for Economic Development’s (OECD) “Fair Information Practice Principles,” (FIPPs) with a couple of new twists.

What was new in the guidelines is that the recommendation to encrypt transmissions of PII (personally identifiable information) includes apps downloaded or used. Second, the guidelines introduce a new term “surprise minimization,” meaning to “minimize surprises to users from unexpected privacy practices,” such as not collecting data that goes beyond an app’s basic functionality, providing a downloadable privacy policy, and providing “enhanced measures” that alert users to and give them control over data not required for functionality or include sensitive information.

FTC’s Expanded Definitions to Protect Children

Of interest to developers and platform-makers who focus on Mobile Learning products for children–and particularly, but not exclusively, Location-based Learning products or services–are the revised rules the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued for the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) that went into effect in July of this year.

PRIVACY-06kids-web-articleLarge_NYT_JuliaYellowFTC’s new amendments expanded the definition of personal information to include persistent identifiers, geo-location information, photos, and videos. In addition, the rules require websites or online services to obtain parental consent before they can use, collect, or disclose a child’s (under 13) personal information.

The loophole the FTC intended to close is the practice of providing children’s information to third parties for advertising purposes.

KidzPrivacy_FTC

EdNET-working the Crowd

About 500 education industry professionals—suppliers, administrators, and practitioners, plus Ambient Insight—came to Denver at the end of September for the 25th annual EdNET conference.

Nelson Heller, creator of EdNET conference

Nelson Heller, creator of EdNET

That in itself was a cause for celebration, as the networking conference that Nelson Heller (2009 inductee into the Association of American Publishers’ Hall of Fame and currently president of The HellerResults Group) started in 1988 is still going strong.

Conversations and presentations ranged from new ways to use data to traditional and new approaches to funding. One theme that came up at EdNET this year was one that Ambient Insight has seen across the planet and that was the need for suppliers to think about teaching the teachers how to implement and incorporate a new learning technology product. “Teachers are busy… (A product) needs to be a simple as an ATM machine” because teachers don’t have the time to figure out how to implement or incorporate a learning product, according to Harold Levy’s point of view as an investment firm executive.

EdNET 2013 "Staying Nimble in an Evolving Market"

Harold Levy, former New York City Schools Chancellor and now Managing Director at Palm Ventures, and Clement Erbmann, Managing Director of First Analysis and formerly with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, participated in the Private Equity panel chaired by Ambient Insight’s chief research officer Sam S. Adkins.

Sam Adkins, Ambient Insight's chief research officer

Sam Adkins, Ambient Insight’s chief research officer

Sam reported to conference attendees that as of mid-September, investment totals for learning technology products and services for 2013 stood at $950 million—with $57 million just in the two weeks preceding the conference.

  • Download the whitepaper “The 2012 Global Boom in Learning Technology Investments” and Sam’s slides  on investment patterns, including 2013 investments, from the Ambient Insight Resource Library: www.ambientinsight.com/News/PublishedContent.aspx.

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The panelists offered insights into the dynamics of the ed tech investment world, including their firms’ different approaches, and provided valuable guidance on “what works” (and what doesn’t). Mr. Erbman reported that his firm takes a minority position and looks for established firms with positive cash flow and high growth rates. Mr.Levy’s firm targets “distressed education businesses” and innovative startups, and often takes a “slight majority” position. He also spoke emphatically that his firm was not interested in companies that offered “technology without pedagogy.”

Both panelists agreed with the impact of the new worldwide trend to alternative funding that Ambient Insight has been tracking for several years: the growth of new incubators and accelerators, and of crowdfunding. Mr. Erbman noted that crowdfunding is emerging as a viable funding alternative for startups.

For example, in 2012, Mango Health was one of 14 startups included in Rock Health’s 4th annual accelerator class. Mango Health did well in school: in 2013 they launched their medical adherence edugame with $3.1 million in funding.

The JOBS Act directed the Securities and Exchange Commission to remove the 1933 ban on advertising publically for investors will figuratively jump-start (pun avoided) more crowd funding and level the geographic playing field. According to crowdsourcing.org, crowdfunding platforms raised a total of $2.7 billion in 2012, an 81% increase over 2011.

Ironically, the new rules on crowdfunding became official on September 23—the last day of the EdNET conference –a place for an exceptionally networked crowd.

 
 
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GSMA’s Mobile Asia Expo – #3

Continuing on about the Connected Living Asia Summit mEducation session at GSMA’s Mobile Asia Expo that Ambient Insight’s Sam Adkins and I attended in Shanghai (this is #3 on that topic)…

if you want to see the slides I presented at the invitation-only session, you may download them http://www.ambientinsight.com/Resources/Documents/AmbientInsight-Mobile-Learning-GSMA-Shanghai-June-2013.pdf (1.3MB PDF Document)

…I’ll share highlights from four other presenters about Mobile Learning reach and partnerships, which are two themes that ran through most of the mEducation speakers’ comments, and something from the Expo.

Kristin Atkins, Senior Director, Wireless Reach, Qualcomm talked about the company’s Wireless Reach project (which reaches 33 countries with 84 projects). “For many, the first and only computing experience will be mobile.” For their Singapore WE Learn project, Qualcomm partnered with a number of organizations (Microsoft, Nan Chiau Primary School, National Institute of Education, Nokia, SingTel, and the University of Michigan) to provide 3G-enabled smartphones, connectivity, and apps for students and teachers. Atkins also announced a collaboration with Sesame Workshop and others in China.

Sesame Street's characters meet children

Sesame Street’s characters meet children

Anita Stewart, Senior VP Strategic Partnerships and Development at Sesame Workshop claims that Sesame Street is the “single largest informal educator of children in the world,” and given their reach (16.5 million kids and parents each quarter) with 60 apps, including foreign language apps in Dutch, German, Hindi, Mandarin, and Spanish) and the Joan Ganz Cooney Center Research, no one is going to quarrel with that.

On July 24th, a partnership of Sesame Workshop, Qualcomm Wireless Reach, China Telecom, and China Youth Development Foundation (CYDF) launched “Let’s Get Ready,” a disaster-preparedness app featuring Sesame characters for children and parents in China.

Qualcomm, Sesame Workshop, and other partners release "Let's Get Ready" app in China

Qualcomm, Sesame Workshop, and other partners release “Let’s Get Ready” app in China

Stephanie Orlino, Education Program Manager from Smart Communications (Philippines telecom) spoke of her company’s partnership with the Philippine Ministry of Education’s Department of Education Bureau of Alternative Learning Systems (BALS) to roll out Mobile Learning by bundling a device with connectivity and content. Their target audience is school dropouts, out-of-school youths, working Filipinos, and senior citizens. On the content side, they have ported third party content into the SMS format; and also reformatted old SIM cards for use as memory devices, then preloaded them with eTextbooks.

David Topolewski, CEO of QooCo, a “global mEducation solutions provider” that offers digital language learning solutions (ever more important in this increasingly connected world) also spoke to partnerships. QooCo created a revenue sharing partnership with Samsung that allows Samsung to sell their devices with the QooCo app preinstalled. QooCo hosts, supports, updates, and “improves continuously.” The value of the service to Samsung is product differentiation and the value to the telecom is selling more data, ARPU uplift, reducing churn, and opening up new market segments (young subscribers).

On the topic of revenue sharing in general, we at Ambient Insight have already noted a wide disparity of revenue sharing arrangements between content developers and their partners, unlike the clearly delineated arrangements for selling apps through the Apple, Microsoft, and Android app stores.

GSMA's Ronda Zelezny-Green and Ambient Insight Tyson Greer at Mobile Asia Expo

GSMA’s Ronda Zelezny-Green and Ambient Insight Tyson Greer at Mobile Asia Expo

After the Connected Living Summit,  Sam Adkins (Ambient Insight’s Chief Research Officer) and I toured the expo–well, some of it–it was ginormous and thousands of people worked their way past booths of new mobile phone devices, crowded into gaming areas, and explored the large Connected Living display area itself–where we ran into Ronda again.

One of the things that caught my eye at the Expo was SK Telecom’s newly release “learning robot,” named Atti that the telecom plans to release in September in their market. With a Bluetooth-enabled smartphone on top of his head (literally), this  educational tool/toy can sing, dance, “see,” and speak.

SK Telecom's learning robot Atti reads a card

SK Telecom’s learning robot Atti

With an optical sensor built into its “nose,” the robot can read cards via Qualcomm’s Vuforia platform and say the word out loud. This has to be one of the most unusual personal learning devices we’ve seen yet–and the number are growing rapidly–80 new ones at last count. There is more about this topic in Sam Adkins’ 2012-2017 Mobile Learning market reports.

You can view summaries and download free abstracts of our Global Mobile Learning Research http://www.ambientinsight.com/Reports/MobileLearning.aspx. We launch the regional reports first and as of this writing, we’ve released the Latin America, North America, and Asia ones.

GSMA’s Mobile Asia Expo – #2

There’s more to say about GSMA’s Mobile Asia Expo and the Connected Living Summit …

For context, GSMA’s Connected Living Program includes mAutomotive, Connected Cities, mHealth, and mEducation verticals. Regarding mEducation, GSMA has been focusing on addressing market barriers to Mobile Learning worldwide and assisting mobile operators, content providers, educational institutes, and governments to transform education via mobile technology.

In the mEducation session of the conference, GSMA’s Ronda Zelezny-Green (mEducation Knowledge Manager) adeptly moderated a panel of speakers that included leaders from Qualcomm, Nokia, Smart Communications (Philippines telecom), QooCo (language learning), Sesame Street Education Workshop, KT (Formerly Korea Telecom), and Spain’s Centro Superior para la Ensenanza Virtual (CSEV).

Panelists cited examples of successful Mobile Learning projects and discussed opportunities as well as barriers. For example, while mobile phones number 6.3 billion today (up from 5 billion last year) and high speed broadband is spreading rapidly, the lack of infrastructure in some schools makes delivery of digital learning very challenging. Often if a school does have broadband, it’s only for administrators and possibly teachers–not students. YTL’s Wing Lee talked about the challenges of covering “the last mile.”

Hee Kyoung Song, senior vice president of KT cited an example of solving this infrastructure problem by offering cloud-based ebook and library services that schools can access via mobile devices. KT has a subsidiary (KT OIC) that is a major education publisher in South Korea and “a global leader in the development of smart-learning content and digital language learning solutions.”

I should mention that in her mEducation Market Trend slides, Song included some of Ambient Insight’s high level revenue and growth data for the Asia region:

Hee Kyoung Song m-Education Market Trends

Hee Kyoung Song m-Education Market Trends

Another barrier to Mobile Learning that Ambient Insight has also identified is the need to train teachers in using mobile technologies. It was gratifying to hear examples of Mobile Learning value added services (VAS) that also included professional development for teachers.

Nokia fully understands the large opportunity that Mobile Learning VAS offers. Willie Cher, Head of Nokia Life China, talked about their very successful VAS. One slide presented identified the types of “lifelong learning” that nine different user-types engaged in; child, student, lesurite, citizen, worker, spouse, home maker, parent, and retiree.

Willie Cher, Nokia Life China - "Addressing Lifelong Learning"

Willie Cher, Nokia Life China – “Addressing Lifelong Learning”

I still have more to say about the Connected Living Summit and will do so in the next blog…

GSMA’s Asia Mobile Expo – #1

Mobile Asia Expo 2013-06-26 029_crop (2)

Last month, Ambient Insight’s Chief Research Officer Sam Adkins and I traveled to China to deliver a presentation at an invitation-only meeting of GSM Association’s (GSMA) mobile network operators (MNOs) and to attend the 3-day Connected Living Summit that GSMA organized in conjunction with their Mobile Asia Expo in Shanghai.

(This new event is the GSMA’s Asia version of their Mobile World Congress held in Barcelona each year.)

Given the Asia region’s explosive interest in mobile (which we’ve detailed in our recently released Mobile Learning in Asia report 2012-2017), it’s not surprising that attendance at GSMA’s Mobile Asia Expo and Conference climbed over to 20,000 this year, up 30% from their inaugural year.

2013-06-24 002_Sam_crop (3)The Asia region is experiencing a boom in Mobile Learning: we forecast the highest growth rate (17.3% of any region in the world. We find China is a particularly interesting market for Mobile Learning–with their rising consumer class and recent announcement of the Chinese government’s decision to accelerate their 4G license allocation.

It’s going to take me a couple of blog entries to share what we learned.

Richard Cockle, GSMA’s Connected Living Program director, opened the closed session (for GSMA members) and introduced speakers Wing K Lee, CEO of YTL Communications (Malaysia telecom) and Willie Cher, Head of Nokia Life, China; both spoke about their highly successful projects.

  • YTL just received a Malaysian government tender (Sam checked: $465 million for the first five years) to deploy their 1BestariNet platform—with content from Khan Academy, British Council, TED, Coursera, and Crash—across every school in Malaysia. That’s 400,000 teachers; 6,000,000 students, and 4,000,000 parents—quite an ambitious 15-year project. But then, YTL claims to be the largest 4G network in all of southeast Asia and covers 85% of Malaysians.
  • Nokia Life, an SMS learning service that’s either preloaded (free) on Nokia devices or downloadable for a fee, now has 100 million users, up from 78 million in September 2012 across Asia and Africa. Equally impressive is their 72% retention rate—very unusual. This far reaching information service focuses on education, health, agriculture, entertainment, entrepreneurship, and women.

We provided insights on key catalysts, new revenue streams, and business opportunities; and contributed market sizing in the Asia Mobile Learning market.

Shanghai 1st morning 2013-06-21 013I have to mention that Shanghai is a splendid, sprawling, surreal city with an 11-route smoothly functioning subway system (of which, as a resident of the Seattle area–a city with no subway–I was truly envious). It has a  great user interface so it was easy to traverse 3 subway lines from the hotel in the old town area across (well, under) the Huangpu River, to the Expo site in the newly-sprouted Pudong trade and finance area. Unfortunately, even a fast subway system or Maglev train couldn’t connect us to Ambient Insight’s Advisory  Group member Aaron Pulkka (Chairman of Metal Rabbit games, China) who was briefly in Shanghai.

PleaseCherishTheGrassCompared to almost anywhere on earth, Shanghai is a huge city–with over 20 million people (Walking on the Bund one night, I think we saw most of them.) But still, there is a gentleness in the city.

Next up: More about GSMA’s mEducation session…

Tyson

CEO Ambient Insight

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